Afghanistan: Past, Present and Future Series, Pt. 3

Future By Nadiya Khaydari, JMU ’22 Political Science and Economics, Woodson Martin Democracy Fellow, and Sarah Akers, JMU ’20 Justice Studies and Woodson Martin Democracy Program Fellow

Introduction

On August 6th, 2021, the Taliban took control of their first provincial capital; by August 15th, they were at the gates of the national capital: Kabul. To avoid bloodshed and fearing execution, President Ashraf Ghani fled Afghanistan the next day. The Taliban are now in control of the country for the first time in twenty years leading everyone to wonder what their regime holds for the citizens of Afghanistan. The United States withdrew all of its military forces from the country on August 31st, leaving behind thousands of Afghans and even some Americans who have now been struggling to find their way out of the country. The withdrawal has sparked a major refugee crisis which has had implications in countries across the world.

What does the future hold?

The situation in Afghanistan is rapidly changing. However, the future unfortunately looks bleak from different fronts. Especially, with the winter approaching soon, consequences might turn out to be dire and long lasting.

One out of many being the economy, which is on the brink of collapse. Prior to the Taliban’s takeover, Afghanistan’s economy heavily relied on international aid which was being significantly reduced and restricted with additional sanctions being placed on the state. Almost 80% of the budget consisted of various aid funded by international donors. Some aid is still being delivered through other channels, not the Taliban. The restrictions and frozen assets abroad have pushed the Taliban to place restrictions of their own on withdrawals, which has led people selling their personal belongings on the streets in hope of raising some cash.

Worsening economy also has a negative impact on prices of goods and wages. Food prices have increased by 50% in a country where 47.3% of the population is below the national poverty line, which is predicted to grow even more. Government salaries have not been paid since the Taliban’s takeover. Lower-paid employees have been promised to be paid soon, while higher-paid employees are said to see a reduction.

One reason why the fight for Afghanistan failed is corruption. Though not the only reason, it remains one of the most discussed reasons on both the U.S. and Afghan sides. Right now, corruption is the least of worries due to the current situation or that there’s been no mention of it. It is a possibility that a new kind of corruption might be introduced, than the one introduced by the U.S., as the Taliban try to find a solution to stabilize the country in the current financial situation.

A major setback to the country is the Taliban’s violation of and restrictions being imposed on women’s rights. The modernized Taliban that talked of the importance of protecting women’s rights during interviews and negotiations never existed. It was a tactic to distract and mislead. The Taliban have not fundamentally changed since the last time they were in power. The Taliban, who are viewed to be fundamentalists, guaranteed women’s right only under Islam. Any doubts have been erased as the Taliban are instituting their laws and rules. This is evident in the way women are being treated in Afghanistan now: women have been pushed out of their jobs, women are being advised to stay home so fighters don’t mistreat them, schools reopened only for boys, women’s rights activists and high-profile women are harassed and are hiding out of fear, female athletes are not allowed to participate in sports.

Freedom of speech has also been under attack in the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate. There have been reports of journalists being threatened and attacked even though the Taliban have promised free press. Now, news stations operate under many strict restrictions and anchors have been replaced by the Talibans and Imams, an Islamic leader.

All of the factors mentioned above and more will have extreme and long lasting consequences on the growth and well-being of the nation and its population. Even the best-care scenarios look bleak. Many Afghans are left to fear the Taliban as well as outside intervention, since this previously led to a 20-year war.

Here’s what you can do:

• Volunteer and/or donate to Church World Service, our local refugee resettlement site.
• Educate others! Don’t spread misinformation and simplistic narratives, but amplify the voices of Afghan refugees, activists, and journalists.
• Human Rights First is accepting donations to help provide pro-bono legal assistance to Afghan evacuees to safely leave and protect their identities from the Taliban.
• The International Refugee Assistance Project is accepting donations to help provide legal services to incoming Afghan refugees.
• Advocate for trauma-informed and culturally relevant support for Afghan refugees and asylum seekers. Historically, mental health support has been underfunded and overlooked among refugees, who are at risk for PTSD due to their circumstances.

Discussion Questions

1. What do you think is the best way for the United States to assist refugees who have been forced to evacuate their country?
2. In your view, what role does the United States have to play in the area of human rights in Afghanistan today, as well as more broadly around the world?
3. How will the rights of women, LGTQ+ individuals, and minority groups be affected in a Talibun-run Afghanistan?
4. Do you believe that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was successful, and do you think it will have positive or negative implications as we head into the future?
5. What can you do to address those most impacted by conflict?