An Intersection of Calamities: The Emerging Trend of Climate Refugees

By Sarah Akers, JMU ’20 Justice Studies, ’21-22 Woodson Martin Democracy Fellow

“No one leaves home unless home is the mouth of a shark.” — Warsan Shire

Introduction

When the general public first started discussing climate change – back when it was referred to as global warming, it was seen as the “great equalizer.” People generally see something poetic about everyone being in the same boat dealing with the same problems. However, this could not be further from the truth. Just as with everything else in society, climate change will affect people differently based on social determinants. One of the first obvious effects of climate change that can no longer be ignored is the emergence of climate refugees.

Like many issues, climate change does not affect everyone in the same way. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, “Climate change is the defining crisis of our time and disaster displacement one of its most devastating consequences. Entire populations are already suffering the impact, but vulnerable people living in some of the most fragile and conflict-affected countries are often disproportionately affected.”

Here are some facts you need to know about climate change, what is contributing to the rise of climate refugees, and the international policies and practices that affect climate refugees.

Climate Change

Currently, the Earth is currently warming ten times faster than the ice age recovery warming. Since the late 19th century, the average temperature has risen 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (NASA, 2020). Six of the warmest years on record have happened since 2014. The acidification of the oceans has increased by 30% since the industrial revolution, which is the result of carbon emissions. Finally, Greenland has lost 286 billion tons of ice sheets every year since 1993, and Antarctica has lost 127 billion tons every year in that same time frame, which has tripled in the last decade (NASA, 2020). This has contributed significantly to the sea level rising approximately 8 inches in the last century. Within the past two decades, the sea level has risen at double the rate of the previous century and will continue to accelerate at this pace. (NASA, 2020).

There are very dramatic changes happening to our planet right now even if everyone doesn’t perceive or experience them. The trends might (or should) make you wonder why we are not taking drastic measures to combat climate change. If 97% to 99% of climate scientists agree that climate change is real and caused by human activity, why do only 60% of Americans believe the same to be true? Unfortunately, it is more than just a scientific matter; it is also a political one.

Fortunately, internationally there is more of a consensus on the reality of the issue. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) entitled Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis on August 9, 2021. In the report, the 234 authors from 66 countries assessed the science of climate change and conclude “some of the changes already set in motion—such as continued sea level rise—are irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years. However, strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases would limit climate change.” The report also states that, without “immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions”, it will be nearly impossible to limit the increase in global temperatures to the target of 1.5° to 2°C above pre-industrial levels set out in the Paris Agreement in 2015 so as to mitigate devastating climate impacts.

Starting in 1992 with the Earth Summit, the international community began talking about the effects of climate change and what actions could be taken in order to make these effects smaller. Since that time, there have been many more regional and global conferences on the matter with some ending with written agreements. For example, under the 2015 Paris climate agreement countries committed to a trillion dollar fund for necessary adaptive infrastructure, a strong effort to keep the temperature rise at or below 1.5 degrees Celsius, and reach a net zero of CO2 emissions by 2050.

While the Obama administration committed to the agreement, under President Donald Trump, the U.S. officially left the agreement. However, under President Biden, the U.S. rejoined the agreement on February 19th, 2021. The next climate conference, COP26, will be held this November, which will hopefully bring about a new sense of urgency and action from the international community. Being the second largest carbon emitter, the United States has a baseline responsibility to be a part of the effort to curb the effects of climate change.

What Creates Climate Refugees

Currently, there are 82.4 million forcibly displaced people in the world, including from humanitarian crises. On average, about 20 million people are displaced each year due to catastrophic and “sudden onset” weather events—flooding, forest fires after droughts, and intensified storms. The World Bank estimated in 2018 that the regions of Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia would generate 143 million more climate refugees by 2050. Whole nations will have to move or cease to exist. 42 to 50 small islands will disappear in the next 20 to 30 years. Tuvalu, the fourth smallest nation in the world, is predicted to be the first nation to be lost to the rising sea level. 

The Teitota family applied in 2015 for refugee status in New Zealand. They were fleeing the island of Kiribati, which is disappearing due to the rising sea level, and were the first applicants requesting refuge based solely on the direct effects of climate change. After a lengthy legal battle, their case was dismissed by the High Court of New Zealand. There has yet to be a case of forcibly displaced people being granted refuge due to the effects of climate change.

Climate change is typically referred to as a threat multiplier because it exacerbates the current conditions and creates more problems, including conflict. More extreme weather events create issues like droughts, too little water, or floods, too much water. More places will be too hot and dry for crops to survive; more places will be too cold and wet for crops to survive. There are also the storms to worry about: the hurricanes, tornadoes, monsoons, etc. The international community needs to accept that “unprecedented” storms will become commonplace. There are also worsening conditions for current refugees and internally displaced people. Natural resources, even clean drinking water, will become scarcer in certain parts of the world.

Furthermore, people who live in fragile states are more prone to the risks associated with climate change, since they do not have a stable enough government to protect them from the effects (like assistance during natural disasters or dams to stop flooding). This translates to the personal level as well. People living in poverty are more susceptible to the effects of climate change. They are more likely to have inconsistent employment and therefore can be more affected by the effects of climate change on agricultural jobs, such as farming, forestry, and fisheries. They are also more likely to be affected by extreme weather events but are less likely to have the resources to leave an area when natural disasters are predicted. Finally, people living in poverty are more likely to be affected by water and food scarcities.

One of the most obvious examples of climate change exacerbating existing circumstances is the disappearance of Lake Chad. Lake Chad is located in central Africa and is surrounded by four countries: Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. The surface area of the lake has decreased by 90% over the previous three decades. This has been caused by population growth and a 57% decrease in rain in the area. The lake is the main source of water and food for the people that live in the area. Since fisheries are a common place of employment, many people have also lost their jobs. Therefore, if a fishery closes down and a family has lost their main source of food and income and their source of water is dwindling, how can they be expected to stay in the area?

However, this only exacerbates the existing conflict in the area surrounding Lake Chad. An Islamic extremist group, Boko Haram, has been able to thrive in the region by exploiting the vulnerabilities of the local population. Boko Haram’s violence and control of the lake has scared away farmers and fishermen. Refugee camps are rapidly becoming more common along one side of the lake. Over 4 million people have been displaced and ended up in refugee camps as a direct result of natural resource-related violence.

In Syria, there has been an ongoing civil war since 2011. The frequent droughts and scarcity of water play a key role in the conflict by increasing the instability of the region. ISIS has used water as a weapon of way by flooding certains areas to displace peop. 80% of Syria’s population live in poverty. Because of their lack of resources, they cannot leave an area easily. However, with no income, no food or water, and constant violence, they have no choice but to leave.

The United States is not immune to the effects of climate change. Dozens of small coastal communities in Louisiana and Alaska have already been relocated by the U.S. government as a preemptive measure. The community of Isle de Jean Charles, a small island off the coast of Louisiana, has been called the United States’ first climate refugees. 98% of its land has been lost to the sea level rising since the 1950s. This first “trial case” did not go well. Even though there were less than 100 people that needed to be relocated, it cost over $50 million. There were also serious problems with the lack of involvement of the Indigenous residents in the process. This is just the beginning. Many more communities in those states as well as others will continue to be threatened.

International Law and Policy

The international community has been slow to react to this emerging trend. Currently the UNHCR has no formal definition for the term “climate refugee” nor does it endorse the use of the term. As well as a lack of a definition, there is also a significant lack of international protections or recognition. If the international community cannot agree on a simple definition for this category of people, there is little hope for the drastic international action needed to assist the millions of people that are and will be displaced by climate change.

Technically speaking climate refugees are not even defined as refugees under international law. According to the United Nations definition from 1951, a refugee is defined as “a person who is outside his/her country of nationality or habitual residence and has a well-founded fear of persecution because of his/her race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion.” Someone fleeing any of the effects of climate change that we have discussed are not fleeing persecution. They also do not always travel outside of their country. Currently, the UNHCR designates these people as “environmental migrants” or  as “persons displaced in the context of disasters and climate change,” since they do not meet the definitional requirements.

Most climate experts strongly suggest prioritizing a proactive action plan going forward. We must learn to focus more heavily on preventing the effects of climate change as opposed to spending billions each year on clean up after floods, hurricanes, and other disasters. Creating more resilient and prepared communities is an unavoidable step in this process. Focusing on communities with high numbers of refugees and/or high levels of poverty is crucial to preventing a higher death toll from disasters.

What Individuals Can Do 

The most impactful first step is to learn more about climate change and how it differentially affects various populations. Even though only 100 companies are responsible for over 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions since the 1980s, this does not mean that individuals cannot make an impact. We can still conserve energy at home when possible. Take public transportation, carshare, bike, or walk whenever possible. If you can afford to do so, consider using an electric car or using solar or wind energy. Some of the easiest actions though can make a difference. Try buying clothes at thrift stores; this can save your wallet too. Be conscious of the products you are buying.

Switching to an ethical brand and refusing to support companies that are creating the most emissions is easier than you think. Buycott is an app that gives you information about a company’s ethics by simply scanning a barcode. You can also get involved in local organizations working to change the energy infrastructure, like the 50 by 25 campaign in Harrisonburg. Write to your local City Council members and other elected officials encouraging them to take action on climate change. Finally, bring your knowledge to the polls. Vote for candidates that are committed to climate action.

Discussions Questions

1. Should the UN recognize people displaced by climate change as refugees? How might this help the people who are displaced?
2. Why do you think it is so difficult to resettle climate refugees?
3. Should countries that are not suffering from climate displacement help people fleeing from other countries because of changes in climate? How can they help?
4. How does a country’s socioeconomic status relate to its vulnerability to climate change?